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The Art of War: China's Aggressive Moves and the Risk of Global Conflict

June 13, 2024 • Estimated Reading Time: 10 minutes

INSATIABLE QUEST FOR POWER:

THE DRAGON ALWAYS BREATHES FIRE

Key Points Covered:

  • China's emergence as a significant player on the world stage

  • The UK's identification of China as an "epoch-defining challenge"

  • China's rising assertiveness and military aggression despite 45 years without direct involvement in a major war

  • Historical examples of peace before conflict

  • China’s bold announcement on preparing for war

  • Taiwan has been warned

  • All Sino-conflicts till date

Could a nation's ascent truly pose such a threat to the global order? China has emerged as a significant player on the world stage, yet key players remain cautious, with the UK identifying the 🇨🇳 People's Republic of China as an "epoch-defining challenge."

A nation that hasn’t been directly involved in a major war for 45 years would seem peaceful but China’s rising assertiveness and 🎖️ military aggression against several of its geopolitical adversaries would decidedly disprove that argument. Case in point, 🇩🇪 Germany was a picture of peace and stability for 40 years before it abruptly instigated World War I. One might ask, what was Deutschland doing all those years? It pursued 🦾 rapid industrialization, expansionist policies, 🪖 aggressive militarization, and the formation of the Triple Alliance with Austria-Hungary and Italy. Then, all hell broke loose in 1914.

An absence of war in a country’s recent history does not necessarily preclude the possibility of future conflict. The denial of the same is ignorance.

In the early 2000s, despite a history of ❄️ Cold War tensions, Russia seemed open to collaborating with NATO and pursuing a partnership with the West. But in 2014, 🇺🇦 Ukraine’s Revolution of Dignity ended with the beginning of the Russo-Ukrainian war and the annexation of Crimea. On 24 February 2022,  Russia invaded Ukraine and the haunting of this humanitarian crisis echoed all around the world. Death hasn’t stopped and the war never ended.

Back in China, President Xi has sent recurrent mandates to the military to be war-ready for radical circumstances. In May 2024, China sent an unambiguous message to Taiwan and the rest of the world by conducting a rehearsal of its potential attacks on the small island nation. Oh well, they are calling it "large-scale military exercises." 🤨

But this isn't the most sinister tactic in the Red Dragon's playbook on the art of war. Those are closely guarded secrets originating from the homeland of the Zhou dynasty's military strategist, Sun Tzu. 🐉

The Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) employs a particularly alarming tactic known as the 'Three Warfare' strategy, to wage public opinion, psychological, and legal warfare.

Xi Jinping is on a mission to rewrite the global rulebook, aiming to dethrone the United States from its position as the world's leading power. As tensions escalate between China and the West, China's espionage operations are zeroing in on industrial and technological secrets, as well as securing its interests abroad. With a sprawling intelligence network estimated at 600,000 operatives, China's covert activities allegedly include targeting overseas dissidents, meddling in foreign politics and general elections (India, Pakistan & Canada), and cyber-espionage. These aggressive maneuvers have sparked widespread fears that missteps and misunderstandings could ignite a major conflict, especially over hot-button issues like Taiwan and the South China Sea. 😨

Here is a comprehensive look at China's conflicts with its international peers to better understand the complex dynamics at play.

SINO-INDIAN BORDER CONFLICT

  • The Sino-Indian border dispute began in the 1950s due to competing territorial claims along the 🏔️ Himalayan border

  • Key disputed areas include Aksai Chin (controlled by China but claimed by India) and Arunachal Pradesh 🏞️ (controlled by India but claimed by China as "South Tibet")

  • Brief but intense 🪖 Sino-Indian War occurred in 1962 after escalating tensions and border skirmishes; China launched an offensive and seized Aksai Chin

  • War ended with China's unilateral ceasefire 🕊️and withdrawal to pre-war positions, but without resolving underlying disputes

  • Skirmishes and standoffs continued in subsequent decades, notably in 1967 at Nathu La and Cho La and in 1987 at Sumdorong Chu Valley

  • In 2020, a deadly clash ⚔️ occurred in the Galwan Valley, the first combat deaths along the border in over 40 years; at least 20 Indian and 4 Chinese soldiers were killed

  • Border remains heavily militarized 🚧 on both sides with occasional thaws in tensions, but a final resolution remains elusive

SOUTH CHINA SEA DISPUTES

  • Territorial disputes in the strategic South China Sea involve overlapping claims between China, Taiwan, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Brunei

  • China claims nearly all of the South China Sea based on "historic rights" and its ambiguous "nine-dash line"

  • Tensions began escalating in the 1970s due to competition over islands, reefs, and maritime resources like oil and natural gas

  • Since 2013, China has engaged in extensive land reclamation and militarization of disputed features in the Paracel and Spratly Island chains

  • China has built military outposts, airstrips, radar facilities and deployed missiles and aircraft to strengthen its de facto control

  • Disputes have led to maritime standoffs, ramming of vessels, and exploitation of disputed energy resources, raising risks of conflict

TAIWAN STRAIT

  • Cross-Strait tensions stem from the unresolved Chinese civil war and competing claims to sovereignty between the People's Republic of China (PRC/Mainland) and the Republic of China (ROC/Taiwan) 🇨🇳🇹🇼

  • PRC asserts Taiwan is a breakaway province that must be reunified with the mainland, by force if necessary; most Taiwanese reject "one country, two systems" model and favor the status quo of de facto autonomy

  • Key flashpoints have included Taiwan Strait crises in 1954-1955, 1958, and 1995-1996 over PRC efforts to coerce and intimidate Taiwan; show of force by the U.S. helped deter conflict 🛡️

  • The U.S. opposes any unilateral changes to the status quo and has committed to providing Taiwan with defensive arms and maintaining the capacity to resist PRC coercion

  • Growing power imbalance in the PRC's favor is raising fears of impending conflict; many analysts see the 2020s as a decade of maximum danger ⚠️

CHINA-JAPAN DISPUTES

  • Key dispute is over the sovereignty of the Senkaku Islands (Diaoyu Islands to China) in the East China Sea, currently administered by Japan but claimed by both Japan and China 🇯🇵🇨🇳

  • Disagreement dates back centuries, but tensions rose in the 1970s with the discovery of potential oil reserves; both sides assert historic and legal claims

  • Another source of friction is Japan's wartime legacy in China, with Beijing criticizing what it sees as Tokyo's insufficient atonement and remilitarization

  • 2012 saw a sharp downturn in relations after Japan nationalized the disputed islands, sparking Chinese protests and economic retaliation 😠

  • Since then, China has stepped up incursions by coast guard and fishing vessels into waters surrounding the islands to challenge Japan's administration

KOREAN PENINSULA

  • The Korean War from 1950-1953 drew China into the conflict in support of North Korea against the U.S.-backed South; ended in an armistice rather than a peace treaty 🇰🇵🇰🇷

  • China remains North Korea's primary ally and economic lifeline, but the relationship has frayed due to Pyongyang's destabilizing behavior and disregard for China's interests

  • China's overriding priorities on the peninsula are preventing instability and conflict that could endanger its development and averting outcomes that could diminish its influence

  • Recurrent cycles of provocation and negotiation on the Korean peninsula remain a major source of regional volatility and great-power competition in Northeast Asia 🌪️

BORDER DISPUTES WITH INDIA, BHUTAN, AND NEPAL

  • In addition to the main western sector dispute with India in Aksai Chin, China also has unresolved eastern and middle sector boundary issues with India and Bhutan 🗺️

  • In 2017, a China-India border standoff occurred near the Doka La region, a triboundary area connecting Bhutan, India's Sikkim state, and China, when China attempted to extend a road into territory claimed by Bhutan

  • Nepal, though not a direct party to Sino-Indian disputes, has been drawn in as the two powers compete for influence in the buffer state; Nepal has long tried to balance ties but has shown some recent tilt toward China 🇳🇵

  • The perennial Himalayan disputes are enmeshed in the wider geopolitical rivalry between China and India, Asia's two most populous nations and civilization-states

CHINA-SOUTHEAST ASIA MARITIME DISPUTES

  • China's sweeping claims and growing assertiveness in the South China Sea have put it at odds with several Southeast Asian neighbors: Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Brunei 🌊

  • Beijing's sovereignty claims based on "historic rights" conflict with Southeast Asian states' desire to exploit resources in their Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) under UNCLOS

  • Since 2013, China has "changed the facts on the water" through massive land reclamation and construction of military facilities on artificial islands, over U.S. and regional objections 🏝️

  • Southeast Asian responses have varied, from Vietnam's strident opposition to the Philippines and Malaysia's cautious balancing between engaging China and seeking U.S. support

  • South China Sea tensions embody the risks of China's expanding power and U.S.-China rivalry to the rules-based international order, particularly as they relate to maritime security and dispute resolution ⚖️

CHINA'S ROLE IN GLOBAL FLASHPOINTS

  • As China's power and interests have expanded, so too has its involvement in conflicts and crises far from its own territory 🌍

  • From Iran and Afghanistan to Syria and Venezuela, China has become a major player in global hotspots with important implications for regional security dynamics and great power relations

  • After the withdrawal of U.S. and NATO forces in 2021, China faced a complex challenge in dealing with Taliban-ruled Afghanistan: the need for stability to protect its regional investments vs. concerns about a haven for Uyghur militancy 🕌

  • As Afghanistan's biggest economic partner and key conduit for the Taliban's global engagement, China has gained major influence but remains wary of security threats and economic overstretch 💸

China's insatiable quest for power and its aggressive posturing have raised concerns among its neighbours and the international community at large. As the dragon continues to breathe fire pushing global anxiety levels further, hope lives for diplomacy and dialogue to prevail over confrontation and conflict. The stakes are high, and the consequences of miscalculation could be catastrophic for regional stability and global peace. 🕊️🌏

Summary

  • China's insatiable quest for power has raised concerns among its neighbors and the international community 🌏

  • The consequences of miscalculation in China's aggressive posturing could be catastrophic for regional stability and global peace 🕊️

  • Diplomacy and dialogue must prevail over confrontation and conflict to navigate the complex geopolitical landscape 🤝

  • The international community must remain vigilant and proactive in addressing the challenges posed by China's rise 🔍

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