Good afternoon, Otter community.

Today’s edition brings: What Trump’s second-term presidency could look like, especially for India; What Gates discussed with the PM; ChatGPT4 competitor is here!; SBF jailed

TODAY’S HIGHLIGHTS

• Kejriwal arrest: Will stay in ED custody till April 1; Block leaders to rally on March 31 📣

• India’s IMF Executive Director says the economy could sustain 8% growth until 2047 🗣️💼

• Bill Gates - Modi discuss: Green GDP, Deepfakes, G20, Women Empowerment and Climate Change 🤝

• Indian Resource Quest: Teams to ⚛ Seek Lithium, Copper Assets in Chile ⛰

• Akasa Air goes international, ✈✈ opens Middle East routes

• PM Modi’s 3rd term could prioritise trade pacts with Britain 🇬🇧, Oman 🇴🇲 to fuel growth

THE BIGGER PICTURE

If Trump Won Again…

With the US presidential election activities commencing and the Biden-Trump 2020 contest to get a retake, a critical question looms: "What if Trump won... again?"

A magnate of the radical political divide, Republican candidate Donald Trump is known for his fluctuating stances on critical issues, fickle-mindedness, colorful language, dauntless style, and extreme views including his intolerance towards most groups and a quest for dominance.

Despite some setbacks, such as ongoing legal issues and controversies, the former POTUS remains a formidable contender with strong support among Republican voters. The political landscape in the United States is highly polarized, with many voters sticking to their party lines which could work in Trump's favor for re-election.

And when that does happen, here is what you could expect under Trump’s new presidency?

American Nationalism at the Forefront

Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign has been styled with a return to his previous isolationist policy stance of an “America First” agenda. Expect unilateralist and anti-interventionist policies to be at the forefront of his administration again.

What it means: 

Disregard for transnational alliances and intergovernmental organizations. Termination of treaties and agreements

As Trump threatens to withdraw financial aid and support to resolve existing international conflicts namely, the Russo-Ukrainian war and the Israel-Hamas War. A fear shared by Ukrainian president Zelenskiy who has hastened efforts to liberate its territory from Russian occupation.

Last month, Donald Trump made unhinged disclosures that he intended to goad Russia to wage war against fellow NATO members.

Stricter Immigration Laws & Border Control: 

Still a presidential nominee, Trump’s expert negotiation skills persuaded Republicans to kill the bipartisan immigration pact as a means to weaponize border chaos against the Biden administration. If Trump wins, be assured that he will swoop in with his right-wing populist law-making to become the ultimate messiah and protector of the American people, enforcing even tighter USA-Mexico border control.

He has also stated that, under his second term presidency, massive numbers of federal law enforcers will be reassigned to immigration control as he carries out the “largest deportation operation” the United States has witnessed. Further, he plans to reinvoke the “Alien Enemies Act” to eliminate felons and drug cartels.

Trump’s promised endeavors may seem noble at face value at first but his remarks on removal of immigrants off college campuses and employment through visa termination reveal his truer intentions.

Education Reforms:

Trump's education plan, announced in September 2023, includes a seismic shift in policy by proposing to shutter the Department of Education to give states more control over education.

His plan? Hand control back to the states, arguing they can better manage education by allowing them to elect principals and have the final say in education. His plan also includes abolishing teacher tenure, introducing merit pay, reducing school administrators and defunding schools teaching critical race theory, and investigating civil rights violations in schools. Instead, he champions a return to traditional American values, pledging to revive the 1776 Commission to promote a patriotic perspective in education. 

Redesigning American Lands:

To bring back manufacturing jobs outsourced to China, Trump’s economic plans include building “Freedom Cities” that give American families economic opportunities and affordable living. These proposals will encourage new industrial development and an air mobility revolution through the invention of “vertical-takeoff-and-landing vehicles”.

Anti-Environmentalist Policies:

Trump’s re-election would also mean the overturn of Biden’s new anti-pollution regulations potentially mandating electric vehicles to make up a significant portion of new car sales in the US by 2032. F

urther, Trump’s pre-election campaign announcements include intentions to expedite drilling permits, expand domestic production, reduce energy prices, and lift restrictions on American natural gas exports. Under the guise of protecting American jobs, the comeback of capitalist systems with absolute disregard for growing climate challenges indicates a lack of foresightedness in the Presidential nominee.

Trade Barriers Against China:

The self-proclaimed “Tariff Man” has proposed the “Trump Reciprocal Trade Act” to penalize its trade partners, specifically China, with reciprocal and identical tariffs. 

60% duties levied on Chinese imports

10% duties for all other imports

This ‘tit for tat’ strategy could prove to be an aggressive arm-twisting tactic for total elimination of any tariffs imposed on the United States. It would be prudent to note, that US Customs and Border Protection data shows that tariffs imposed during Trump’s previous presidency have resulted in $230 billion paid by American importers to date! Consequentially,

• The American end-consumer ultimately bore the inflated cost of goods

• Trade wars resulted in job losses in the manufacturing sector

• Tariffs failed to boost domestic manufacturing output

• Retaliatory tariffs slapped on American imports

The right-wing populist leader could likely introduce tax breaks and tax cuts, repealing Biden’s gun control restrictions and replacing Obamacare.

As Trump gears up for his final term, expectations are rife for an anti-globalist presidency marked by a lot more political strong-arming, bizarre antics, and raucous policy-making that always… always is in his best (personal and business) interests.

His overbearing attitude will likely reach new heights, demanding that India navigate this turbulent landscape with utmost caution to protect its interests. Balancing act or bust, India will walk a diplomatic tightrope on Trump's minefield.

THE MARKET MOVEMENT

1. Manufacturing: GOCL Corp, led by Hinduja Group, Hits 20% Upper Circuit Following Rs 3,402 Crore Land Deal ⚙🛠

2. Tech: Tata Elxsi collaborates with Germany-based Dräger for 🩺critical care innovation, stock gains 1.4% 📈

3. Realty: Nifty Realty Index emerges as 🏢 FY24 best-performing index with 133% gains 🏗🚧

4. DRHP IPO: Afcons Infra files DRHP for IPO; 💸💸 Shapoorji Pallonji Group Unit seeks SEBI nod for fresh OFS, to raise Rs. 7,000 cr 🏙

GEOPOLITICS SPOTLIGHT

1. Russian 🇷🇺 veto halts UN monitoring North Korea sanctions 🇺🇳 🛑; panel was investigating weaponry transfer between Moscow and Pyongyang

2. US elections heat up, Trump hopeful to gain $33 million from 🗣wealthy donors at Florida fundraiser, could outraise Biden’s $25 million

3. China to woo foreign investors with financial market deregulation, two-way capital account opening 💰💰

TECH NEXUS

1. Anthropic’s Claude 3 Opus model surpasses OpenAI's GPT-4 capabilities 🤖

2. Apple's 🍎 new iPad Pro set for May launch boosts overseas production; Software work-in-progress📱🚀

3. Xiaomi's first EV 🚙 will go on sale at a starting price of $30,000

4. X’s Grok Chatbot is set to receive an upgrade with the Grok 1.5 model

5. Sam Bankman-Fried Sentenced to 25 Years for Fraud and Money Laundering at FTX 👮‍♂