PLAYING HARD TO GET:

ELON MUSK'S ELABORATE BAIT & SWITCH 🎣🕹️

Let's role-play a bit. You are a hot commodity in the dating market but not quite approachable. Many viable suitors show interest but you are still processing your new-found popularity. So, you spend your nights wondering - "Should I? Shouldn't I break down my walls?". A debatably handsome tech billionaire sets his eyes on you and you think maybe, you have found the one. 😍 

Years of talking over calls, countless emails exchanged and a few social encounters later, you give in and agree to make it official. He plans a trip to see you, and advertises it all over social media. Your family is ecstatic you found the best match. Everyone is talking, both offline and online. 🗣️💬

Maybe you lost 75 pounds in your excitement, prepping to see him. 🏃‍♀️💪 But, a few days before his visit, he publicly cancels on you. 😱 Only a week later, you finally understand why. He is working things out with his ex and social media is buzzing about your very public dumping. 💔📱

This would make for a great storyline if you were writing young adult fiction. Except, millions of dollars were involved and this could have been a game-changer for the Indian EV industry's future, the country's ambitious plan to fortify its image as the "next China" and a knock-out blow for the opposition in this year's general elections. 💸🇮🇳🗳️

HOW THIS STORY BEGAN 🌟

Rather infamously, India's import duties for EVs imported as a completely built unit (CBU) used to be an exorbitant 70% to 100%. 💸😱 We didn't do so well on the Ease of Doing Business scale either, still ranking 63rd in 2019, putting quite the wrench in our manufacturing dreams. 🔧💭 For that, you may thank rampant red-tape practices and a bad reputation for producing higher defect-laden goods and poor quality. 📜👎

Now, you can see why it has been so hard for the world's 5th largest economy to entice giant corporations to set up their manufacturing plants on our homeland. 🏭🌍 After securing milestone deals with Apple, Foxconn, AMD, Micron, and Google, we have yet to add luxury EV makers like Tesla, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, and Volkswagen to this list. 🍎🦊💻🚗

While others played the waiting game, Elon Musk vocally lobbied for lowered import duties. The Tesla CEO wanted to test the market before he committed to building a factory with a special exemption allowing the automaker to "first sell and service" its vehicles. 🗣️🏭

In March 2024, the Indian government did what it had to do and brought down import duties by a whopping 75%!!! 🎉💸 To add to our international appeal as a manufacturing destination, 15% import duties are now applicable on electric car models costing upwards of $35,000 for 5 years. 🌐🚗

In all fairness, this revision came with terms and conditions. 📜✍️

• Companies must invest at least $500 million and start local production within 3 years, to receive tax concessions 💰⏰ 

• Only 40,000 electric cars in total and 8,000 annually can be imported with an $800 million investment pledge 🚗📊

It seemed this would be enough to appease Elon Musk. He responded with an India trip scheduled for April 21 and 22. 🇮🇳

WHY WAS ELON MUSK KEEN ON INDIA 🤔🇮🇳

The intention of his visit was much more layered, beyond breaking into an EV market with a projected CAGR of 35% from 2023 to 2032. 📈🔌 The 13% Tesla stakeholder was gunning to accomplish two more goals -

1. To advance government approval to operate SpaceX's Starlink in India and provide internet access to remote Indian villages 🛰️🌐 

2. To capitalize on India's sustainable power generation and energy storage potential ☀️🔋

WHY INDIA WAS KEEN ON ELON MUSK'S VISIT 🇮🇳👀

Circling back, the launch of the satellite communications venture, Starlink, would have itself poured in $2 billion to $3 billion in investment into India and competed with two separate satcom joint ventures involving Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel. 🛰️💰

Another $3 billion or so in investments with Tesla setting up shop here would have been a welcome feather in our cap. 🎩🪶 Think wider on that economics. The auto giant’s presence would have given a significant leg up to India's EV ecosystem bringing in suppliers and the much-revered Tesla charging infrastructure! 🔌🚗

India is 10 years behind schedule and where China used to be. That's a new market with insane potential for a company with sliding sales. 📉🇮🇳

For the Modi government, this mammoth injection of capital would have certainly won voter favour and strengthened their election campaign. A third term was almost promised. 🗳️🇮🇳

HOW THIS STORY CLIMAXED 📈📉

Musk's India visit went social media official with both parties making public announcements. The Indian government even sent out formal invites for an event with Musk's attendance confirmed. 🎉📅

Then, unceremoniously Musk tweeted 'heavy Tesla obligations' to excuse the cancellation of said plans. 😢🐦 A week later, he pops over uninvited to China. Add insult to injury, Mr. Tech Billionaire! 😠🇨🇳 

The India-China rivalry is internationally known. We don't meet eye to eye whether it is about the seas, ports, borders, or business. 🌊⚓🌍💼

WHY CHINA OVER INDIA? 🤔🇨🇳 

Was it really that shocking? Upsetting, yes! But, not exactly shocking and here is why. India is the third-largest auto market but only a fifth of China's size as the latter accounts for 60% of the world's EV market, with 8 million electric passenger cars registered last year. 🚗📊 Meanwhile, India sold 90,000 EVs last year. 🇮🇳 

• India offers minuscule incentives compared to China's government support 💸🇨🇳 

• India is a difficult market to crack in terms of price, offering limited market potential for Tesla*'s* top-tier pricing 💰🇮🇳 

• The auto models are unlikely to meet local preferences or smoothly glide through Indian roads 🛣️🚗 

• Inadequate support for manufacturing scale and supply chain development 🏭📦

• Indian auto companies have faster adaptability to customer requirements and changing tastes, not exactly Tesla's strength 🇮🇳🚗

This wasn't just about what India could offer.

Tesla has been struggling and desperately needs to win back the Chinese market it once ruled. 📉🇨🇳 The company reported its first YoY sales drop since the early pandemic days. Tesla delivered 386,810 vehicles in Q1 which was a clear indicator of shrinking sales attributed to slow production of the extremely costly and complicated project, the Cybertruck. 🛻💸 In the same quarter, Tesla produced 46,561 more cars than it delivered which means the even new models weren't met with market enthusiasm either. 😕🚗

Well, seems like having a devil-may-care attitude in your social media posts does catch up in your company's performance. 😈📱 The signs were all there. For the first time, Tesla put a $2,000 discount on most of its price tags and lowered prices across its China offerings to put a halt to declining sales and push inventory turnover. 💸📉

IMPACT OF MUSK’S CHINA VISIT 🇨🇳💪 

The success of Elon's China trip was immediately felt on its stock price which had fallen by as much as 40% this year, dropping its market value below $470 billion. 📉💸 Tesla's stock price rose the most in three years. 📈🎉

Being the world's most populous country has its perks - a growing middle class, a large population, and a steady supply of labor from a young demographic. 👨‍👩‍👧‍👦🌍 While China is suffering from a slowdown, an aging demographic (the aftermath of its 36-year-long one-child policy), and a real estate crisis. 📉👴🏘️ Yet, China's large consumer market, developed infrastructure, and manufacturing efficiency make it a priority for foreign businesses like Tesla. 🛍️🏭🇨🇳

India is seen as the next growth driver and a destination for tech investments to 'de-risk' supply chains, but, China retains enduring importance. 🇮🇳📈 

A truth we cannot ignore. 🙈

POST-TESLA NO SHOW IN INDIA 🇮🇳

Perhaps, the company is still not out of deep waters. It's no secret that Cybertruck is an excessively radical project with a skyrocketing overall cost of development. 🛻💸 Recently, almost 3,900 Cybertruck pickups were recalled over accelerator pedal issues. ⚠️🛻 Tesla has been on a lay-off spree cutting more than 10% of its headcount citing role duplication and cost-cutting along with two key executives leaving the company. 👥📉

Tesla filed a trademark infringement case against a Gurugram-based company for using "Tesla Power" and "Tesla Power USA" trade names. ⚖️🔌 Why bother with a small local player in a country you don't operate in? Because you want to keep the door open and well-oiled for when you do decide to enter the room. 🚪

Most importantly, Tesla's loss was Jaguar Land Rover's and Vinfast's gain. 🚗🇬🇧🇻🇳 India was long overdue for an EV policy makeover and Elon Musk's elaborate bait and switch has opened doors for other foreign automakers looking to get a piece of the pie. 🥧🌐